U.S. fire deaths, fire death rates, and risk of dying in a fire

Understanding this information

Although many regional factors, such as climate, poverty, education and demographics, affect fire issues in the United States, one of the most useful ways to compare fire fatalities across groups of people is to look at their relative risk of dying in a fire.

What is relative risk? show answer + hide answer -

Relative risk compares the per capita rate of a particular group to the overall per capita rate (for example, the U.S. general population). The relative risk of the overall U.S. population is always set at 1. Here are two examples that show how relative risk is used to compare fire fatalities:

  • The relative risk of dying in a fire in Pennsylvania is 1.2. This means that Pennsylvania residents are 1.2 times more likely to die in a fire than the overall U.S. population.
  • The relative risk of a child dying in a fire in 2016 is 0.5. This means that a child is 50 percent less likely to die in a fire than the overall U.S. population.

What does per capita mean? show answer + hide answer -

To account for population differences, per capita rates are used. Per capita rates use a common population size, which then permits comparisons between different groups. Per capita rates are determined by the number of deaths or injuries occurring to a specific population group divided by the total population for that group. This ratio is then multiplied by a common population size.

For the purposes of this analysis, per capita rates for fire deaths are measured per 1 million persons. For example, the 2016 per capita fire death rate for the total older adult (ages 65 and over) population is computed from the total number of older adult fire deaths (1,314) divided by the total older adult population (49,272,330) multiplied by 1,000,000 persons. This rate is equivalent to 26.7 deaths per 1 million population.

How are fire death rate trends determined? show answer + hide answer -

Fire death rates are measured by deaths per million population. Trends are computed to show how the rates have changed over time by smoothing fluctuations or variations in data from year-to-year.

U.S. overall fire death rate trend

The overall 10-year fire death rate trend decreased 15.8 percent from 2007 to 2016. The table and chart below show the decline in the fire death rate trend.

Fire death rates per million population (2007-2016)

YearNumber of Fire DeathsPopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)
20073,994301,231,20713.3
20083,650304,093,96612.0
20093,391306,771,52911.1
20103,445309,338,42111.1
20113,414311,644,28011.0
20123,146313,993,27210.0
20133,468316,234,50511.0
20143,428318,622,52510.8
20153,362321,039,83910.5
20163,515323,405,93510.9
10-Year Trend (%)-15.8%

Note: The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares.

Sources:

State fire death rates and relative risk

State fire loss profiles

This page presents a snapshot of fire losses by state reported through the National Fire Incident Reporting System in 2016. Also included is information about fire departments and firefighter and home fire fatalities in 2018.

Overall, people living in 24 states and the District of Columbia had a higher risk of dying in a fire in 2016 than the U.S. general population. West Virginia with a relative risk of 2.7, lead the group followed by Alaska (2.4), Alabama (2.0) and Tennessee (2.0). People living in Connecticut were 50 percent less likely to die in a fire than the general population.

* Indicates states where relative risk was not computed due to very small numbers of fire deaths (fewer than 10 deaths).

State of OccurrenceRelative Risk
Alabama2.0
Alaska**2.4
Arizona0.8
Arkansas1.9
California0.6
Colorado0.8
Connecticut**0.5
Delaware*
District of Columbia**1.6
Florida0.7
Georgia1.7
Hawaii*
Idaho**0.9
Illinois1.0
Indiana1.1
Iowa1.6
Kansas1.7
Kentucky1.8
Louisiana1.5
Maine**1.2
Maryland0.8
Massachusetts0.6
Michigan1.1
Minnesota0.8
Mississippi1.8
Missouri1.4
Montana**0.9
Nebraska1.4
Nevada0.9
New Hampshire**0.8
New Jersey0.6
New Mexico1.0
New York0.7
North Carolina1.2
North Dakota*
Ohio1.3
Oklahoma1.8
Oregon0.9
Pennsylvania1.2
Rhode Island**1.2
South Carolina1.4
South Dakota**1.6
Tennessee2.0
Texas0.8
Utah0.8
Vermont**1.6
Virginia1.0
Washington0.8
West Virginia2.7
Wisconsin0.8
Wyoming*

2016 fire deaths, fire death rates and relative risk by state

State of OccurrenceFire DeathsFire Death RateRelative Risk
Alabama10822.22.0
Alaska**1925.62.4
Arizona588.40.8
Arkansas6220.71.9
California2546.50.6
Colorado468.30.8
Connecticut**195.30.5
Delaware****
District of Columbia**1217.51.6
Florida1477.10.7
Georgia18618.01.7
Hawaii****
Idaho**169.50.9
Illinois13610.61.0
Indiana7611.51.1
Iowa5417.21.6
Kansas5318.21.7
Kentucky8819.81.8
Louisiana7516.01.5
Maine**1712.81.2
Maryland559.10.8
Massachusetts426.20.6
Michigan12212.31.1
Minnesota509.00.8
Mississippi5919.81.8
Missouri9014.81.4
Montana**109.60.9
Nebraska2915.21.4
Nevada299.90.9
New Hampshire**118.20.8
New Jersey556.10.6
New Mexico2210.51.0
New York1487.50.7
North Carolina12912.71.2
North Dakota****
Ohio16414.11.3
Oklahoma7819.91.8
Oregon399.50.9
Pennsylvania16112.61.2
Rhode Island**1413.21.2
South Carolina7314.71.4
South Dakota**1517.41.6
Tennessee14121.22.0
Texas2308.20.8
Utah258.20.8
Vermont**1117.61.6
Virginia9010.71.0
Washington679.20.8
West Virginia5329.02.7
Wisconsin539.20.8
Wyoming****
United States3,51510.91.0

Notes:

  1. * Indicates states where fire death rates and relative risk were not computed due to very small numbers of fire deaths (fewer than 10 deaths).
  2. ** Fire death rates should be used with caution due to small numbers of deaths. Per the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), National Vital Statistics Reports, Volume 60, No. 4, “Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2010,” a rate or percentage is based on at least 20 deaths. Rates based on fewer than 20 deaths are considered highly variable.
  3. Fire death rates are based on all deaths in which exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor in the chain of events leading to death. Specifically, International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 Codes: F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26, and Y35.1 were extracted for this analysis, resulting in a total of 3,515 fire deaths.
  4. The fire death rates presented here reflect the crude death rates and are not age adjusted. The crude death rate is the total number of fire deaths per state divided by the total population per state and multiplied by 1,000,000. These crude death rates should not be used for comparisons between states due to the significant impact of age in mortality data and different age distributions in different state populations.

Sources:

Child fire deaths, fire death rates and relative risk (2007-2016)

Ages 0 to 14

The overall trend in the fire death rate of children ages 0 to 14 decreased 43 percent during 2007-2016 and the relative risk of dying in a fire was less than that of the general population. In 2016, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children ages 14 and under was 50 percent less than that of the general population.

YearNumber of Fire Deaths Ages 0 to 14PopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
200751060,681,6158.40.6
200840560,907,3846.60.6
200938361,087,5816.30.6
201035761,200,6465.80.5
201132461,169,6495.30.5
201227461,114,1994.50.4
201332161,069,4605.30.5
201428561,055,6974.70.4
201527161,002,0244.40.4
201630960,976,2835.10.5
10-Year Trend (%)-42.7% 

Ages 0 to 4

Although the relative risk of dying in a fire in 2016 for children under the age of 5 was lower than the overall U.S. population, children ages 0 to 4 had the highest fire death rates compared to children of all ages and, as a result, had a higher relative risk of dying in a fire compared to older children.

The fire death rate trend for young children decreased 49 percent over the 10-year period of 2007-2016. Prior to 2006, the fire death rate for young children was slightly higher than the general population. From 2007 to 2016, the fire death rates of children ages 4 and younger were less than or the same as the general population. This decline may be attributed, in part, to an increase in public fire education and prevention efforts. For each year from 2012 to 2016, the relative risk of dying in a fire for the youngest children was 30 percent lower than that of the general population — the lowest relative risk for this age group over the ten-year period.

YearNumber of Fire Deaths Ages 0 to 4PopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
200726720,125,96213.31.0
200822120,271,12710.90.9
200921720,244,51810.71.0
201020420,188,77310.10.9
201117520,122,6468.70.8
201213819,975,1636.90.7
201316319,847,9418.20.7
201414819,870,8187.40.7
201513719,915,7306.90.7
201614419,919,5777.20.7
10-Year Trend (%)-48.6% 

Ages 5 to 9

The fire death rate trend for children ages 5 to 9 decreased 40 percent over the 10-year period. In 2016, the relative risk of dying in a fire for this group was 60 percent less than that of the general population.

YearNumber of Fire Deaths Ages 5 to 9PopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
200715519,714,6117.90.6
200811619,929,6025.80.5
20099820,182,4994.90.4
201010320,331,1485.10.5
20119720,332,7924.80.4
20129120,467,4144.40.4
201310220,567,7715.00.5
20147820,515,3833.80.4
20158320,475,9444.10.4
20169820,429,5044.80.4
10-Year Trend (%)-39.7% 

Ages 10 to 14

Children ages 10 to 14 had the lowest relative risk of dying in a fire compared to children of all ages. This group’s relative risk of dying in a fire was 70 percent less than the general population. From 2007 to 2016, the fire death rate trend decreased 26 percent for children in this age group.

YearNumber of Fire Deaths Ages 10 to 14PopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
20078720,841,0424.20.3
20086820,706,6553.30.3
20096820,660,5643.30.3
20105020,680,7252.40.2
20115220,714,2112.50.2
20124420,671,6222.10.2
20135520,653,7482.70.2
20145920,669,4962.90.3
20155120,610,3502.50.2
20166720,627,2023.20.3
10-Year Trend (%)-25.9% 

Notes:

  1. The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares.
  2. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported.
  3. The counts of fire deaths for the individual age categories (i.e., 0 to 4, 5 to 9, 10 to 14) may not sum to the total per year for the 0 to 14 age category due to rounding.

Sources:

Older adult fire deaths, fire death rates and relative risk (2007-2016)

Ages 65 and over

The fire death rate trend for older adults (ages 65 and older) decreased 19 percent from 2007-2016. Although the trend in fire death rates has decreased for the older adult population, older adults face the greatest relative risk of dying in a fire. In 2016, older adults had a 2.5 times greater risk of dying in a fire than the population as a whole.

YearNumber of Fire Deaths Ages 65 and OverPopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
20071,29637,825,71134.32.6
20081,25438,777,62132.32.7
20091,13039,623,17528.52.6
20101,20040,480,89329.62.7
20111,21541,364,20029.42.7
20121,14343,158,38826.52.6
20131,23444,672,69527.62.5
20141,30646,217,11428.32.6
20151,33247,728,53727.92.7
20161,31449,272,33026.72.5
10-Year Trend (%)  -18.6% 

Ages 65 to 74

The trend in fire death rate for older adults ages 65 to 74 decreased 11 percent over the 10-year period. This group had 2.0 times the risk of dying in a fire than the general population in 2016.

YearNumber of Fire Deaths Ages 65 to 74PopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
200749119,698,72724.91.9
200850720,505,67924.72.1
200945121,233,09921.21.9
201046521,858,04421.31.9
201148822,493,14621.72.0
201248924,005,40620.42.0
201350525,213,32720.01.8
201457726,385,08021.92.0
201561027,532,12022.22.1
201662628,646,00521.92.0
10-Year Trend (%)  -11.1% 

Ages 75 to 84

The fire death rate trend for older adults ages 75 to 84 decreased 11 percent over the 10-year period. In 2016, individuals in this age group were 2.9 times more likely to die in a fire than the general population.

YearNumber of Fire Deaths Age 75-84PopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
200749913,087,43938.12.9
200846913,076,10235.93.0
200943713,022,77533.63.0
201045213,079,71534.63.1
201144613,169,16233.93.1
201241513,274,80531.33.1
201349213,445,15836.63.3
201445613,677,63133.33.1
201547413,917,83334.13.3
201644914,244,44831.52.9
10-Year Trend (%)  -10.5% 

Ages 85 and over

Adults ages 85 and older saw the largest decrease in fire death rate trends from 2007 to 2016, with a decline of 35 percent. Unfortunately, this group had the highest relative risk of dying in a fire. In 2016, adults ages 85 and over were 3.4 times more likely to die in a fire than the total population.

YearNumber of Fire Deaths Ages 85 and OlderPopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
20073065,039,54560.74.6
20082795,195,84053.74.5
20092415,367,30144.94.1
20102825,543,13450.94.6
20112815,701,89249.34.5
20122395,878,17740.74.1
20132376,014,21039.43.6
20142736,154,40344.44.1
20152486,278,58439.53.8
20162386,381,87737.33.4
10-Year Trend (%)-34.8% 

Notes:

  1. The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares.
  2. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported.
  3. The counts of fire deaths for the individual age categories (i.e., 65 to 74, 75 to 84, 85+) may not sum to the total per year for the 65+ age category due to rounding.

Sources:

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