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Although many regional factors, such as climate, poverty, education and demographics, affect fire issues in the United States, one of the most useful ways to compare fire fatalities across groups of people is to look at their relative risk of dying in a fire.
What is relative risk? show answer + hide answer -
Relative risk compares the per capita rate of a particular group to the overall per capita rate (for example, the U.S. general population). The relative risk of the overall U.S. population is always set at 1. Here are two examples that show how relative risk is used to compare fire fatalities:
What does per capita mean? show answer + hide answer -
To account for population differences, per capita rates are used. Per capita rates use a common population size, which then permits comparisons between different groups. Per capita rates are determined by the number of deaths or injuries occurring to a specific population group divided by the total population for that group. This ratio is then multiplied by a common population size.
For the purposes of this analysis, per capita rates for fire deaths are measured per 1 million persons. For example, the 2019 per capita fire death rate for the total older adult (ages 65 and over) population is computed from the total number of older adult fire deaths (1,471) divided by the total older adult population (54,036,735) multiplied by 1,000,000 persons. This rate is equivalent to 27.2 deaths per 1 million population.
How are fire death rate trends determined? show answer + hide answer -
Fire death rates are measured by deaths per million population. Trends are computed to show how the rates have changed over time by smoothing fluctuations or variations in data from year-to-year.
The overall 10-year fire death rate trend increased 3% from 2010 to 2019. The table and chart below show the rise in the fire death rate trend.
|Year||Number of Fire Deaths||Population||Fire Death Rate (per million population)|
|10-Year Trend (%)||+3.3%|
Note: The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares.
This page presents a snapshot of fire losses by state reported through the National Fire Incident Reporting System in 2019. Also included is state information about fire departments and firefighter and home fire fatalities in 2021.
Overall, people living in 24 states and the District of Columbia had a higher risk of dying in a fire in 2019 than the U.S. general population. Alaska with a relative risk of 2.5 lead the group followed by the District of Columbia (2.2). People living in New Jersey were 50% less likely to die in a fire than the general population.
* Indicates states where relative risk was not computed due to very small numbers of fire deaths (fewer than 10 deaths).
|State of Occurrence||Relative Risk|
|District of Columbia||2.2|
|State of Occurrence||Fire Deaths||Fire Death Rate (per million population)||Relative Risk|
|District of Columbia**||17||24.0||2.2|
The overall trend in the fire death rate of children ages 0 to 14 decreased 13% during 2010‑2019 and the relative risk of dying in a fire was less than that of the general population. In 2019, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children ages 14 and under was 60% less than that of the general population.
|Year||Number of Fire Deaths Ages 0 to 14||Population||Fire Death Rate (per million population)||Relative Risk|
|10-Year Trend (%)||-13.4%|
For children under the age of 5, the fire death rate trend decreased 32% over the 10-year period. Children of this age group, however, have the highest fire death rates among children of all ages and, as a result, are at a higher relative risk of dying in a fire when compared to older children.
Prior to 2006, the fire death rate for young children was slightly higher than the general population. From 2010 to 2019, the fire death rates of children ages 4 and younger were less than that of the general population. This decline may be attributed, in part, to an increase in public fire education and prevention efforts.
For 2019, the relative risk of dying in a fire for the youngest children was 50% lower than that of the general population — the lowest relative risk for this age group since the U.S. Fire Administration began tracking the relative risk of dying in a fire in the mid-1970s.
|Year||Number of Fire Deaths Ages 0 to 4||Population||Fire Death Rate (per million population)||Relative Risk|
|10-Year Trend (%)||-32.4%|
The fire death rate trend for children ages 5 to 9 increased 4% over the 10-year period. In 2019, the relative risk of dying in a fire for this group was 60% less than that of the general population.
|Year||Number of Fire Deaths Ages 5 to 9||Population||Fire Death Rate (per million population)||Relative Risk|
|10-Year Trend (%)||+3.6%|
From 2010 to 2019, the fire death rate trend increased 26% for children ages 10 to 14. In 2019, however, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children of this age group was 80% less than that of the general population. Although the trend in the fire death rate has increased for children of this age group, they still have the lowest relative risk of dying in a fire compared to younger children.
|Year||Number of Fire Deaths Ages 10 to 14||Population||Fire Death Rate (per million population)||Relative Risk|
|10-Year Trend (%)||+26.1%|
The fire death rate trend for older adults (ages 65 and older) decreased by 2% from 2010‑2019. In 2019, the fire death rate for people in this age group was 27.2 deaths per million population. The older adult population faces the greatest relative risk of dying in a fire. In 2019, the relative risk of dying in a fire for older adults was 2.5 times higher than that of the population as a whole.
|Year||Number of Fire Deaths Ages 65 and Over||Population||Fire Death Rate (per million population)||Relative Risk|
|10-Year Trend (%)||-1.5%|
The trend in fire death rate for older adults ages 65 to 74 increased 18% over the 10-year period. In 2019, the fire death rate for people in this age group was 23.6 deaths per million population. Older adults (ages 65 to 74) had 2.2 times the risk of dying in a fire in 2019 than the general population.
|Year||Number of Fire Deaths Ages 65 to 74||Population||Fire Death Rate (per million population)||Relative Risk|
|10-Year Trend (%)||+18.2%|
The fire death rate trend for older adults ages 75 to 84 decreased 8% over the 10-year period. In 2019, individuals in this age group were 2.8 times more likely to die in a fire than the general population — the lowest relative risk for this age group over the 10-year period.
|Year||Number of Fire Deaths Age 75-84||Population||Fire Death Rate (per million population)||Relative Risk|
|10-Year Trend (%)||-7.8%|
Adults ages 85 and older saw the largest decrease in fire death rate trends for older adults from 2010 to 2019, with a decline of 17%. Older adults of this age group, however, had the highest fire death rates among the general population as a whole and, as a result, were at the highest risk of dying in a fire. In 2019, individuals ages 85 and over were 3.6 times more likely to die in a fire than the general population, while those adults ages 65 to 74 were only 2.2 times more likely to suffer fire-related deaths.
|Year||Number of Fire Deaths Ages 85 and Older||Population||Fire Death Rate (per million population)||Relative Risk|
|10-Year Trend (%)||-17.2%|