On a per capita basis, fire death rates in the United States have fluctuated over the past 10 years. In the case of fire deaths, fire death rates measure the number of fire deaths per million population. Trends in fire death rates are computed to show how the rates have changed over time by smoothing fluctuations or variations in the data from year to year.
To account for population differences, per capita rates are used. Per capita rates use a common population size, which then permits comparisons between different groups. Perhaps the most useful way to assess fire casualties across groups is to determine the relative risk of death or injury. Relative risk compares the per capita rate for a particular group (e.g., children) to the overall per capita rate (i.e., the general population). The result is a measure of how likely a group is to be affected. For the general population of the U.S., the relative risk is set at 1.
In 2022, children ages:
0-4 had a higher relative risk of dying in a fire compared to older children.
5-9 had a relative risk of dying in a fire that was 60% less than the general population.
10-14 had a relative risk of dying in a fire that was 80% less than the general population.
Fire death rates per million population and relative risk for children (2013-2022)
Ages 0 to 14
Overall, the trend in the fire death rate per million population for children ages 14 and under decreased 6% from 2013 to 2022. From 2013 to 2022, the relative risk of dying in a fire was less than that of the general population for children ages 14 and under. In 2022, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children ages 14 and under was 60% less than that of the general population.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Ages 0 to 14 | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 321 | 61,087,762 | 5.3 | 0.5 |
| 2014 | 285 | 61,078,836 | 4.7 | 0.4 |
| 2015 | 271 | 61,030,138 | 4.4 | 0.4 |
| 2016 | 309 | 61,021,294 | 5.1 | 0.5 |
| 2017 | 314 | 61,008,778 | 5.1 | 0.5 |
| 2018 | 332 | 60,879,327 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
| 2019 | 241 | 60,613,145 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| 2020 | 232 | 61,331,347 | 3.8 | 0.3 |
| 2021 | 308 | 60,622,548 | 5.1 | 0.4 |
| 2022 | 303 | 60,070,357 | 5.0 | 0.4 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | -5.8% |
Ages 0 to 4
For children under the age of 5, the fire death rate trend decreased 22% over the 10-year period. Children of this age group, however, have the highest fire death rates among children of all ages and, as a result, are at a higher relative risk of dying in a fire when compared to older children.
From 2013 to 2022, the fire death rates of children ages 4 and younger were less than that of the general population. From 2019 to 2022, the relative risk of dying in a fire for the youngest children was 50% lower than that of the general population — the lowest relative risk for this age group since the U.S. Fire Administration began tracking the relative risk of dying in a fire in the mid-1970s.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Ages 0 to 4 | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 163 | 19,855,184 | 8.2 | 0.7 |
| 2014 | 148 | 19,878,806 | 7.4 | 0.7 |
| 2015 | 137 | 19,924,706 | 6.9 | 0.7 |
| 2016 | 144 | 19,936,737 | 7.2 | 0.7 |
| 2017 | 130 | 19,895,016 | 6.5 | 0.6 |
| 2018 | 157 | 19,778,527 | 7.9 | 0.7 |
| 2019 | 105 | 19,571,339 | 5.4 | 0.5 |
| 2020 | 107 | 19,291,875 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
| 2021 | 132 | 18,850,308 | 7.0 | 0.5 |
| 2022 | 117 | 18,657,742 | 6.3 | 0.5 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | -22.2% |
Ages 5 to 9
For children ages 5 to 9, the fire death rate trend increased 17% over the 10-year period. In 2021 and 2022, however, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children ages 5 to 9 was 0.4, or 60% less than that of the general population, although 10% higher than it was in 2020 when the relative risk was 0.3 or 70% less than that of the general population.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Ages 5 to 9 | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 102 | 20,575,591 | 5.0 | 0.5 |
| 2014 | 78 | 20,526,270 | 3.8 | 0.4 |
| 2015 | 83 | 20,490,819 | 4.1 | 0.4 |
| 2016 | 98 | 20,450,557 | 4.8 | 0.4 |
| 2017 | 115 | 20,330,306 | 5.7 | 0.5 |
| 2018 | 111 | 20,212,958 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
| 2019 | 85 | 20,221,753 | 4.2 | 0.4 |
| 2020 | 69 | 20,345,136 | 3.4 | 0.3 |
| 2021 | 111 | 20,307,666 | 5.5 | 0.4 |
| 2022 | 116 | 20,259,621 | 5.7 | 0.4 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | +16.6% |
Ages 10 to 14
From 2013 to 2022, the fire death rate trend increased 10% for children ages 10 to 14. In 2022, however, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children of this age group was 0.2, or 80% less than that of the general population, as it also was from 2019 to 2021. In addition, although the trend in the fire death rate has increased for children of this age group, they still have the lowest relative risk of dying in a fire compared to younger children.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Ages 10 to 14 | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 55 | 20,656,987 | 2.7 | 0.2 |
| 2014 | 59 | 20,673,760 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
| 2015 | 51 | 20,614,613 | 2.5 | 0.2 |
| 2016 | 67 | 20,634,000 | 3.2 | 0.3 |
| 2017 | 69 | 20,783,456 | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| 2018 | 64 | 20,887,842 | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| 2019 | 51 | 20,820,053 | 2.4 | 0.2 |
| 2020 | 56 | 21,694,336 | 2.6 | 0.2 |
| 2021 | 65 | 21,464,574 | 3.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 | 70 | 21,152,994 | 3.3 | 0.2 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | +9.7% |
Notes:
The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported. The counts of fire deaths for the individual age categories (i.e., 0 to 4, 5 to 9, 10 to 14) may not sum to the total per year for the 0 to 14 age category due to rounding.
Sources:
- National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). 2013-2022 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. The table includes those deaths that are assigned International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X06, X08-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26 and Y35.1.3. These codes indicate that exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2013-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2022, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023 (NC-EST2023-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2024.