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Child Fire Death Risk

In 2021, children ages:

0-4 had a higher relative risk of dying in a fire compared to older children.

5-9 had a relative risk of dying in a fire that was 60% less than the general population.

10-14 had a relative risk of dying in a fire that was 80% less than the general population.

Child fire deaths, fire death rates and relative risk (2012-2021)

Ages 0 to 14

The overall trend in the fire death rate of children ages 0 to 14 decreased 5% from 2012 to 2021 and the relative risk of dying in a fire was less than that of the general population. In 2021, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children ages 14 and under was 60% less than that of the general population.

YearNumber of Fire Deaths Ages 0 to 14PopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
201227461,127,4584.50.4
201332161,087,7625.30.5
201428561,078,8364.70.4
201527161,030,1384.40.4
201630961,021,2945.10.5
201731461,008,7785.10.5
201833260,879,3275.50.5
201924160,613,1454.00.4
202023260,590,3233.80.3
202130859,928,4375.10.4
10-Year Trend (%)-4.9% 

Ages 0 to 4

For children under the age of 5, the fire death rate trend decreased 18% over the 10-year period. Children of this age group, however, have the highest fire death rates among children of all ages and, as a result, are at a higher relative risk of dying in a fire when compared to older children.

Prior to 2006, the youngest children (ages 0 to 4) had fire death rates that were slightly higher than that of the general population. Recent data indicate that this trend has changed. From 2012 to 2021, the fire death rates of children ages 4 and younger were less than that of the general population. This decline may be attributed, in part, to an increase in public fire education and prevention efforts. From 2019 to 2021, the relative risk of dying in a fire for the youngest children was 50% lower than that of the general population — the lowest relative risk for this age group since the U.S. Fire Administration began tracking the relative risk of dying in a fire in the mid-1970s.

YearNumber of Fire Deaths Ages 0 to 4PopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
201213819,980,9366.90.7
201316319,855,1848.20.7
201414819,878,8067.40.7
201513719,924,7066.90.7
201614419,936,7377.20.7
201713019,895,0166.50.6
201815719,778,5277.90.7
201910519,571,3395.40.5
202010719,070,0305.60.5
202113218,676,2297.10.5
10-Year Trend (%)-17.7% 

Ages 5 to 9

For children ages 5 to 9, the fire death rate trend increased 8% over the 10-year period. In 2021, however, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children ages 5 to 9 was 0.4 or 60% less than that of the general population, although 10% higher than it was in 2020 when the relative risk was 0.3 or 70% less than that of the general population.

YearNumber of Fire Deaths Ages 5 to 9PopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
20129120,472,6794.40.4
201310220,575,5915.00.5
20147820,526,2703.80.4
20158320,490,8194.10.4
20169820,450,5574.80.4
201711520,330,3065.70.5
201811120,212,9585.50.5
20198520,221,7534.20.4
20206920,091,6703.40.3
202111120,055,7005.50.4
10-Year Trend (%)+7.8% 

Ages 10 to 14

From 2012 to 2021, the fire death rate trend increased 17% for children ages 10 to 14. In 2021, however, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children of this age group was 0.2 or 80% less than that of the general population as it also was in 2019 and 2020. In addition, although the trend in the fire death rate has increased for children of this age group, they still have the lowest relative risk of dying in a fire compared to younger children.

YearNumber of Fire Deaths Ages 10 to 14PopulationFire Death Rate (per million population)Relative Risk
20124420,673,8432.10.2
20135520,656,9872.70.2
20145920,673,7602.90.3
20155120,614,6132.50.2
20166720,634,0003.20.3
20176920,783,4563.30.3
20186420,887,8423.10.3
20195120,820,0532.40.2
20205621,428,6232.60.2
20216521,196,5083.10.2
10-Year Trend (%)+16.8% 

Notes:

The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported.

Sources:

  • National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). 2012-2021 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program.
  • U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2012-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
  • U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2021, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2022 (NC-EST2022-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2023.