Child Fire Death Rates and Relative Risk (2014-2023)
On a per capita basis, fire death rates in the United States have fluctuated over the past 10 years. Although many regional factors, such as demographics and weather, affect fire issues in the U.S., one of the most useful ways to compare fire fatalities across groups of people is to look at their relative risk of dying in a fire.
In 2023, children ages:
0-4 had a higher relative risk of dying in a fire compared to older children.
5-9 had a relative risk of dying in a fire that was 60% less than the general population.
10-14 had a relative risk of dying in a fire that was 80% less than the general population.
Fire death rates per million population and relative risk for children (2014-2023)
Ages 0 to 14
Overall, the trend in the fire death rate per million population for children ages 14 and under decreased by less than 1% (0.7%) from 2014 to 2023. From 2014 to 2023, the relative risk of dying in a fire was less than that of the general population for children ages 14 and under. In 2023, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children ages 14 and under was 60% less than that of the general population, as it also was in 2021 and 2022.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Ages 0 to 14 | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 285 | 61,078,836 | 4.7 | 0.4 |
| 2015 | 271 | 61,030,138 | 4.4 | 0.4 |
| 2016 | 309 | 61,021,294 | 5.1 | 0.5 |
| 2017 | 314 | 61,008,778 | 5.1 | 0.5 |
| 2018 | 332 | 60,879,327 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
| 2019 | 241 | 60,613,145 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| 2020 | 232 | 61,331,347 | 3.8 | 0.3 |
| 2021 | 308 | 60,622,548 | 5.1 | 0.4 |
| 2022 | 303 | 60,070,357 | 5.0 | 0.4 |
| 2023 | 282 | 59,498,481 | 4.7 | 0.4 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | -0.7% |
Note: The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported. The counts of fire deaths for the individual age categories (i.e., 0 to 4, 5 to 9, 10 to 14) may not sum to the total per year for the 0 to 14 age category due to rounding.
Sources:
- National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). 2014-2023 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. The table includes those deaths that are assigned International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X06, X08-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26 and Y35.1.3. These codes indicate that exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2014-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2023, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023 (NC-EST2023-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2024.
Ages 0 to 4
For children under the age of 5, the fire death rate trend decreased 13% over the 10-year period. Children of this age group, however, have the highest fire death rates among children of all ages and, as a result, are at a higher relative risk of dying in a fire when compared to older children.
From 2014 to 2023, the fire death rates of children ages 4 and younger were less than that of the general population. For each year from 2019 to 2023, the relative risk of dying in a fire for the youngest children was 50% lower than that of the general population — the lowest relative risk for this age group since the U.S. Fire Administration began tracking the relative risk of dying in a fire in the mid-1970s.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Ages 0 to 4 | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 148 | 19,878,806 | 7.4 | 0.7 |
| 2015 | 137 | 19,924,706 | 6.9 | 0.7 |
| 2016 | 144 | 19,936,737 | 7.2 | 0.7 |
| 2017 | 130 | 19,895,016 | 6.5 | 0.6 |
| 2018 | 157 | 19,778,527 | 7.9 | 0.7 |
| 2019 | 105 | 19,571,339 | 5.4 | 0.5 |
| 2020 | 107 | 19,291,875 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
| 2021 | 132 | 18,850,308 | 7.0 | 0.5 |
| 2022 | 117 | 18,657,742 | 6.3 | 0.5 |
| 2023 | 126 | 18,511,160 | 6.8 | 0.5 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | -12.7% |
Note: The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported.
Sources:
- NCHS. 2014-2023 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. The table includes those deaths that are assigned ICD codes F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X06, X08-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26 and Y35.1.3. These codes indicate that exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2014-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2023, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023 (NC-EST2023-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2024.
Ages 5 to 9
For children ages 5 to 9, the fire death rate trend increased 18% over the 10-year period. For each year from 2021 to 2023, however, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children ages 5 to 9 was 0.4 or 60% less than that of the general population, although 10% higher than it was in 2020 when the relative risk was 0.3 or 70% less than that of the general population.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Ages 5 to 9 | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 78 | 20,526,270 | 3.8 | 0.4 |
| 2015 | 83 | 20,490,819 | 4.1 | 0.4 |
| 2016 | 98 | 20,450,557 | 4.8 | 0.4 |
| 2017 | 115 | 20,330,306 | 5.7 | 0.5 |
| 2018 | 111 | 20,212,958 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
| 2019 | 85 | 20,221,753 | 4.2 | 0.4 |
| 2020 | 69 | 20,345,136 | 3.4 | 0.3 |
| 2021 | 111 | 20,307,666 | 5.5 | 0.4 |
| 2022 | 116 | 20,259,621 | 5.7 | 0.4 |
| 2023 | 93 | 20,152,757 | 4.6 | 0.4 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | +18.1% |
Note: The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported.
Sources:
- NCHS. 2014-2023 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. The table includes those deaths that are assigned ICD codes F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X06, X08-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26 and Y35.1.3. These codes indicate that exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2014-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2023, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023 (NC-EST2023-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2024.
Ages 10 to 14
From 2014 to 2023, the fire death rate trend increased 7% for children ages 10 to 14. In 2023, however, the relative risk of dying in a fire for children of this age group was 0.2 or 80% less than that of the general population as it also was from 2019 to 2022. In addition, although the trend in the fire death rate has increased for children of this age group, they still have the lowest relative risk of dying in a fire compared to younger children.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Ages 10 to 14 | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 59 | 20,673,760 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
| 2015 | 51 | 20,614,613 | 2.5 | 0.2 |
| 2016 | 67 | 20,634,000 | 3.2 | 0.3 |
| 2017 | 69 | 20,783,456 | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| 2018 | 64 | 20,887,842 | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| 2019 | 51 | 20,820,053 | 2.4 | 0.2 |
| 2020 | 56 | 21,694,336 | 2.6 | 0.2 |
| 2021 | 65 | 21,464,574 | 3.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 | 70 | 21,152,994 | 3.3 | 0.2 |
| 2023 | 63 | 20,834,564 | 3.0 | 0.2 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | +6.6% |
Note: The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported.
Sources:
- NCHS. 2014-2023 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. The table includes those deaths that are assigned ICD codes F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X06, X08-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26 and Y35.1.3. These codes indicate that exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2014-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2023, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023 (NC-EST2023-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2024.
Understanding this information
To account for population differences, per capita rates are used. Per capita rates use a common population size, which then permits comparisons between different groups. Per capita rates are determined by the number of deaths or injuries occurring in a specific population group divided by the total population for that group. This ratio is then multiplied by a common population size. For the purposes of this analysis, per capita rates for fire deaths are measured per 1 million people.
For example, the 2023 per capita fire death rate for the total child (ages 0 to 14) population is computed from the total number of child fire deaths (282), divided by the total child population (59,498,481) multiplied by 1,000,000 people. This rate is equivalent to 4.7 deaths per 1 million population.
Relative risk compares the per capita rate for a particular group (e.g., children) to the overall per capita rate (i.e., the general population). The result is a measure of how likely a group is to be affected. For the general population of the U.S., the relative risk is set at 1.
The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. Trends are computed to show how the rates have changed over time by smoothing fluctuations or variations in data from year-to-year.