Older Adult Fire Death Risk (2014-2023)
On a per capita basis, fire death rates in the United States have fluctuated over the past 10 years. Although many regional factors, such as demographics and weather, affect fire issues in the U.S., one of the most useful ways to compare fire fatalities across groups of people is to look at their relative risk of dying in a fire. The older adult population faces the greatest relative risk of dying in a fire.
Older adults compared to the general population (2023):
Ages 65-74 had 2.2 times the risk of dying in a fire. The 10-year (2014-2023) fire death rate trend for this age group increased 41%.
Ages 75-84 had 2.9 times the risk of dying in a fire. The 10-year (2014-2023) fire death rate trend for this age group increased 16%.
Ages 85 and over had the highest relative risk among the general population of dying in a fire.
Fire death rates per million population and relative risk for older adults ages 65+ (2014-2023)
Ages 65 and over
Overall, the trend in the fire death rate per million population for older adults (ages 65 and over) increased 26% from 2014 to 2023. In 2023, the fire death rate for people in this age group was 33.0 deaths per million population. In 2023, the relative risk of dying in a fire for older adults was 2.5 times higher than that of the general population.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Ages 65 and Over | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1,306 | 46,161,005 | 28.3 | 2.6 |
| 2015 | 1,332 | 47,655,870 | 28.0 | 2.7 |
| 2016 | 1,314 | 49,208,479 | 26.7 | 2.5 |
| 2017 | 1,444 | 50,757,639 | 28.4 | 2.5 |
| 2018 | 1,593 | 52,354,605 | 30.4 | 2.6 |
| 2019 | 1,471 | 54,036,735 | 27.2 | 2.5 |
| 2020 | 1,583 | 54,452,561 | 29.1 | 2.5 |
| 2021 | 1,904 | 55,884,746 | 34.1 | 2.6 |
| 2022 | 1,995 | 57,470,184 | 34.7 | 2.6 |
| 2023 | 1,955 | 59,248,361 | 33.0 | 2.5 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | +25.7% |
Note: The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported. The counts of fire deaths for the individual age categories (i.e., 65 to 74, 75 to 84, 85+) may not sum to the total per year for the 65+ age category due to rounding.
Sources:
- National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). 2014-2023 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. The table includes those deaths that are assigned International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X06, X08-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26 and Y35.1.3. These codes indicate that exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2014-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2023, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023 (NC-EST2023-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2024.
Ages 65 to 74
The trend in the fire death rate per million population for older adults (ages 65 to 74) increased 41% over the 10-year period and resulted in the largest increase in the fire death rate trends for older adults. In 2023, the fire death rate for people in this age group was 28.5 deaths per million population. In addition, in 2023, older adults (ages 65 to 74) had 2.2 times greater risk of dying in a fire than the general population, 10% lower than it was in 2022 but the same as it was from 2018 to 2021 when the relative risk was also 2.2 times greater than the general population.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Ages 65 to 74 | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 577 | 26,355,438 | 21.9 | 2.0 |
| 2015 | 610 | 27,488,218 | 22.2 | 2.1 |
| 2016 | 626 | 28,593,127 | 21.9 | 2.0 |
| 2017 | 689 | 29,606,234 | 23.3 | 2.1 |
| 2018 | 774 | 30,445,006 | 25.4 | 2.2 |
| 2019 | 744 | 31,471,344 | 23.6 | 2.2 |
| 2020 | 816 | 32,569,281 | 25.1 | 2.2 |
| 2021 | 954 | 33,632,878 | 28.4 | 2.2 |
| 2022 | 1,050 | 33,999,840 | 30.9 | 2.3 |
| 2023 | 989 | 34,685,284 | 28.5 | 2.2 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | +40.9% |
Note: The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported.
Sources:
- NCHS. 2014-2023 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. The table includes those deaths that are assigned ICD codes F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X06, X08-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26 and Y35.1.3. These codes indicate that exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2014-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2023, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023 (NC-EST2023-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2024.
Ages 75 to 84
From 2014 to 2023, the fire death rate trend for older adults ages 75 to 84 increased 16% over the 10-year period. In 2023, individuals ages 75 to 84 were 2.9 times more likely to die in a fire than the general population.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Age 75-84 | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 456 | 13,672,321 | 33.4 | 3.1 |
| 2015 | 474 | 13,904,556 | 34.1 | 3.3 |
| 2016 | 449 | 14,232,344 | 31.5 | 2.9 |
| 2017 | 477 | 14,682,479 | 32.5 | 2.9 |
| 2018 | 526 | 15,371,573 | 34.2 | 2.9 |
| 2019 | 475 | 15,965,924 | 29.8 | 2.8 |
| 2020 | 491 | 15,822,264 | 31.0 | 2.7 |
| 2021 | 654 | 16,210,654 | 40.3 | 3.1 |
| 2022 | 650 | 17,411,486 | 37.3 | 2.8 |
| 2023 | 688 | 18,368,097 | 37.5 | 2.9 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | +16.4% |
Note: The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported.
Sources:
- NCHS. 2014-2023 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. The table includes those deaths that are assigned ICD codes F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X06, X08-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26 and Y35.1.3. These codes indicate that exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2014-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2023, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023 (NC-EST2023-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2024.
Ages 85 and over
From 2014 to 2023, the trend in the fire death rate per million population for older adults ages 85 and over increased 17% over the 10-year period. Older adults of this age group also had the highest fire death rates among the general population as a whole and, as a result, were at the highest risk of dying in a fire. In 2023, individuals ages 85 and over were 3.4 times more likely to die in a fire than the general population, while those adults ages 65 to 74 were only 2.2 times more likely to suffer fire-related deaths.
| Year | Number of Fire Deaths Ages 85 and Older | Population | Fire Death Rate (per million population) | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 273 | 6,133,246 | 44.5 | 4.1 |
| 2015 | 248 | 6,263,096 | 39.6 | 3.8 |
| 2016 | 238 | 6,383,008 | 37.3 | 3.4 |
| 2017 | 278 | 6,468,926 | 43.0 | 3.8 |
| 2018 | 293 | 6,538,026 | 44.8 | 3.8 |
| 2019 | 251 | 6,599,467 | 38.0 | 3.6 |
| 2020 | 276 | 6,061,016 | 45.5 | 4.0 |
| 2021 | 296 | 6,041,214 | 49.0 | 3.8 |
| 2022 | 295 | 6,058,858 | 48.7 | 3.6 |
| 2023 | 277 | 6,194,980 | 44.7 | 3.4 |
| 10-Year Trend (%) | +17.0% |
Note: The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. The numbers of fire deaths are adjusted for those deaths where age was not reported.
Sources:
- NCHS. 2014-2023 Mortality Data Files, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. The table includes those deaths that are assigned ICD codes F63.1, W39-W40, X00-X06, X08-X09, X75-X76, X96-X97, Y25-Y26 and Y35.1.3. These codes indicate that exposure to fire, fire products or explosion was the underlying cause of death or was a contributing factor.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2014-2019, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2020 (NC-EST2020-AGESEX-RES). Release date: May 2021.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. July 1, 2020-2023, population estimates from the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023 (NC-EST2023-AGESEX-RES). Release date: April 2024.
Understanding this information
To account for population differences, per capita rates are used. Per capita rates use a common population size, which then permits comparisons between different groups. Per capita rates are determined by the number of deaths or injuries occurring in a specific population group, divided by the total population for that group. This ratio is then multiplied by a common population size. For the purposes of this analysis, per capita rates for fire deaths are measured per 1 million people.
For example, the 2023 per capita fire death rate for the total older adult (ages 65 and over) population is computed from the total number of older adult fire deaths (1,955), divided by the total older adult population (59,248,361), multiplied by 1,000,000 people. This rate is equivalent to 33.0 deaths per 1 million population.
Relative risk compares the per capita rate for a particular group (e.g., older adults) to the overall per capita rate (i.e., the general population). The result is a measure of how likely a group is to be affected. For the general population of the U.S., the relative risk is set at 1.
The computation of the trend is based on the simple linear regression method of least squares. Trends are computed to show how the rates have changed over time by smoothing fluctuations or variations in data from year-to-year.